— Oro

“Freedom Square…”

From #Lagos #OccupyNigeria Day 5, posted by ‘Gbenga Sesan on 1/13/2012 (61 items)

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“Government of the PEOPLE…”

From #Lagos #OccupyNigeria Day 4, posted by ‘Gbenga Sesan on 1/12/2012 (26 items)

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“And the crowd continues to grow!”

From #OccupyNigeria Protest Day 9 (Strike Day 3), posted by ‘Gbenga Sesan on 1/11/2012 (30 items)

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In 2007, I had the honour of joining the Archbishop Desmond Tutu African Leadership Fellowship. The excellent Fellowship program is managed by the African Leadership Institute, and now boasts of Fellows who play key roles in various sectors of the African economy – including Nigeria. For me, one of the (many) best sessions, during the program, was Scenario Planning. We looked into the crystal ball based on past events, current trends, future possibilities and our planned input. The result of the various group Scenario Planning sessions stayed with me, but allow me to talk about Africa some other time.

When I returned to Nigeria after the twin sessions, and learnt about the scenario planning exercise completed by the African Leadership Institute in partnership with LEAP Africa, I was excited! I loved what I saw in the scenarios: Parambulator, Shine Your Eye, Jaga Jaga Republic and We Don Win. Graphic and almost prophetic (as they now appear), the scenarios paint a clear picture of Nigeria’s four possible futures. The great thing about the future is that it can be largely influenced by your present-day actions, even if there are dark spots from the past. For Nigeria, I had hoped that our natural choice was the We Don Win scenario, and I have been doing my little bit – as have millions of other Nigerians – to make that happen.

You can read more about the Nigeria 2025 Scenario Planning project (overview, objectives, expected outputs, methodology and institutional structure) on the ALI website, but let me mention that the members of the Advisory Board, at the time, were Engr. Mansur Ahmed (Chair), Ms. Morin Desalu (Deputy Chair), Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Mr. Frank Nweke Jr., Dr. Adhiambo Odaga, Mr. Eamon Cassidy, Fr Mathew Kukah, Ms. Ifueko Omogui, Mr. Segun Adeniyi, Prof. Pat Utomi, and Dr. Oby Ezekwesili. I searched for the project website so I could reference the videos but it’s now offline. However, I found the videos on Youtube, and you can watch all the 6 short videos (4 scenarios, introduction and conclusion) below.

When you’re through, you’ll know for sure where we are currently headed. Don’t forget, an object will continue in a state of rest, or constant uniform motion, unless otherwise acted upon by a force. I think the ongoing set of peaceful, unbelievably unifying, surprisingly action-based and increasingly focused #OccupyNigeria protests provide an opportunity to use the Nigerian reset button. The future I desire for the 2 children Temi and I will raise is much more like We Don Win, where citizens can trust government even when life happens, but let me avoid spoilers. Watch, and tell me if you’re not motivated to join the peaceful protests that were triggered by the ill-advised (and now terribly managed) removal of fuel subsidy on January 1, 2012.

The issues are bigger than subsidy (or deregulation as Abuja now suddenly prefers), it is an opportune moment in Nigeria’s history when all stakeholders can work towards the Nigeria of our dreams. In a democracy, the people matter, and the people are now saying that it’s time to cut government waste, fight corruption and improve the quality of governance, before toying with the only delicate chord that represents the nearly non-existent citizen-government social contract. This is the message I have heard ringing through the various social media reports from the #OccupyNigeria protests across Nigeria, and it’s time for Abuja to lead by example by hitting the reset button first. The best future can only come with huge respect for people power!

“If you thought you saw a crowd yesterday, what do you call today’s?”

From #OccupyNigeria Day 8 (Strike Day 2), posted by ‘Gbenga Sesan on 1/10/2012 (60 items)

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“See people!!!”

From #OccupyNigeria Day 1, posted by ‘Gbenga Sesan on 1/09/2012 (42 items)

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Statement By Civil Society Organizations On The Removal Of Fuel Subsidy

The decision of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to remove the subsidy on petroleum products on New Year Day is insensitive, callous and a declaration of war of starvation on the Nigerian people.

The decision has left thousands of Nigerians who travelled home for the Christmas and New Year holidays stranded in their hometowns and villages in different parts of the country. This is because most of them cannot afford the increase in rates being charged by motorists. It has also left the Nigerian people despondent, afraid and nervous at what the future holds for them given the irresponsibility of the political elite and their penchant for aggravated mismanagement of the Nigerian economy.

Since the President has in the face of massive opposition gone ahead to implement a policy that he knows will lead to the destitution and death of thousands of the Nigerian people it has become urgent and imperative for us as leaders in our various organizations, representing broad spectrum of the national civil society movement, to issue this statement restating our position on the issue.

The Nigerian economy has been in a continuous crisis for years now. This crisis is the result of a number of factors, including the poor management of the economy by the government, corruption and the unfavourable positioning of the economy in the global space. Rather than tackling the economic crisis in a holist manner the government has instead focused on tinkering with the economy through its fixation on the removal of fuel subsidy. We note that:

1. Government has not been transparent and honest in its disclosure about the determinants, management and utilization of previous fuel subsidy funds and cannot be trusted with the management of the present one.

2. Government has, while acknowledging that subsidy fund has been cornered and misused by a cabal has failed to bring those guilty of misusing and misappropriating the fund to face anti-corruption laws due to the fact that a large number of those in government are part of the cabal and complicit in the mismanagement of the funds and the Nigerian economy.

3. Government has been and continues to be insensitive to the plight of the ordinary people of Nigeria by asking citizens who have been groaning under increased and increasing hardship to make additional and back breaking sacrifices while government officials wallow in obscene opulence and are not called upon to make similar sacrifices in the form of reduction in their salaries, allowance and other perquisites of office.

4. The sense of lack of money that has gripped the government is the result of unbridled and unconstitutional juggling of the commonwealth of the Nigerian people for electioneering purposes and the lack lustre fight against corruption. It is noteworthy that the Federal and State Governments started talking about the collapse of the Nigerian economy shortly after using public funds to fund their elections and re-elections.

5. The nebulous, illegal and unconstitutional structure put in place by the government for the management of the fund to accrue from subsidy removal would only create new cabals and new avenues for corruption. It will also serve to give new visibility to those whose actions and inactions in government led Nigeria to the present sorrow state.

6. The obscene amount budgeted for security in the appropriation bill is a clear manifestation of the fact that the government is bent on using public resources to fight dissent and in the process subvert the sovereign right of the people to peace and society.

7. In a democratic system of government based on the will of the people government is expected and in fact required to consult citizens through a referendum on major decision that will alter their ways of life.

We oppose subsidy remove because:

1. Quick cash access through subsidy removal is not a solution to the structural problems of the economy.

2. Fuel subsidy removal will trigger huge general prices increase that will increase hardships on the citizens of Nigeria who have been going through untold hardship accentuated by poor leadership and the institutionalisation of corruption as government policy.

3. In the context of the failure of the government to control corruption, the projected money that could accrue to governments from the removal of subsidy would simply empower a new cabal and recycle corruption to new players.

4. There are alternatives to mobilising the sort of money that government needs to finance the budget but government is fixated on removal of fuel subsidy because it wants quick fixes and easy money to continue to recycle corruption and bad governance.

5. The removal of oil subsidy can unleash a crisis that may lead to generalised lawlessness and threaten the foundation of the Nigerian society and its democracy.

6. Governments deliberately ran down the refineries and have been using the issue of turn around maintenance to create new avenues of corruption and empower the same cabal engaged in fuel import racketeering.

In place of subsidy removal we insist that the government can finance the budget and make life more meaningful for the Nigerian people by:

1. Tapping from alternative sources such as marine transport, genuine attention to agriculture, genuine collection of taxes and revenue, awarding genuine contracts and proceeding against those that collect monies for no job done, cutting avenues of waste and keeping a lid on ostentatious living by public office holders and increased diversification of the economy.

2. Repairing and reactivating the refineries while facilitating the establishment of new and efficient ones

3. Refocusing the anti-corruption fight to make it more effective such that leaks in public funds could be stopped and channelled to projects and programmes for which the funds are appropriated.

4. Cutting to the barest minimum the obscene amount of money allocated in the Federal Budget for security and getting the States and Local Governments to do the same.

5. Reassessing the huge amounts spent on subsidising Christian and Muslim pilgrimages and the fraud and corrupt perpetrated by a few people using such pilgrimages as a cover.

6. Re-assessing the viability of some States and Local Governments and maximizing the funds used for the maintenance of states and Local Governments that cannot generate 5% of its internal revenue.

7. Closing down white elephant liaison offices belonging to state governments that are in Abuja, Lagos, Kaduna, Enugu and in other major State capitals and channelling the funds to other developmental activities.

Our Position

1. That the unilateral decision of the President to remove the subsidy on Petroleum products on New Year day and at a period when he claimed he was still consulting Nigerians is the political and social equivalent of a declaration of war on the Nigerian people.

2. That the decision of the President to remove the subsidy on Petroleum products can lead to generalized lawlessness and endanger democracy and a democratic Nigeria.

3. That civil society groups and the Nigerian people will hold the President, his kitchen cabinet and the cabal around him personally responsible and accountable for the current deaths and destruction of properties across the country.

4. That civil society groups and organisations will join forces with all democratic forces to make sure that the imposition of the death penalty on the Nigerian people through the withdrawal of subsidy on petroleum products does not stand.

5. We call on organised labour to take the lead and organise the Nigerian people to massively resist the current imposition of hardship and death on the Nigerian people.

6. We also call on organised labour to resist the present bait of endless negotiations and insist that any negotiation with the government must start with the reversal of the fuel subsidy removal and a return to the status quo.

7. We urge civil society groups to reject its membership of the so called re-investment committee as civil society groups and organisations cannot be part of a committee that will preside over the proceeds of a policy aimed at destabilizing Nigerian democracy and pauperizing the Nigerian people.

SGD:
Festus Okoye, Human Rights Monitor
Y.Z Yau, CITAD
Anyakwee Nsirimovu, Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law
Innocent Chukwuma, CLEEN Foundation
Funke Aluko , Centre for Genders Rights Protection
Emma Ezeazu, Alliance for Credible Elections
Daviour Akpan, Community Policing Partners
Faruk Umar, Secretary, Transparency in Nigeria

“January 3, 2012, #OccupyNigeria #FuelSubsidy Protest in Pictures…”

From Lagos #FuelSubsidy Protest in Pictures, posted by ‘Gbenga Sesan on 1/03/2012 (39 items)

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Tonight, Nigeria’s President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, GCFR, attempted – again (as has now become his daily duty) – to convince Nigerians to buy into his sudden realisation of Nigeria’s pending doom because of fuel subsidies. At best, the president comes across as a man selling a product he’s bent on forcing down the throat of citizens, and I’m sure he already knows that the government does not have the permission of the majority to go ahead. We’ve been here before, the numbers don’t look right and the “transformation team” is working towards the laziest answer to Nigeria’s socio-economic sustainability. The more Abuja says, the more it exposes the fundamental weakness of the self-taught remove-subsidy-and-transform-Nigeria argument.

What is going on in Nigeria today was aptly described by Prof. Chinua Achebe in his popular book, “The Trouble with Nigeria,” where he said that “The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness of its leaders to rise to the challenge of personal example…” As much as Abuja talks about transforming Nigeria, it all ends as dropped words because the actions of the current administration have not shown any difference from those of the occupiers of our political space who simply feed fat on our ignorance, apathy and resilience. How does a government that preaches sacrifice budget N2.5 million (over $15,000) for its daily feeding? Cassava bread, which the president promised to feed on until his exit in 2015, must be very expensive.

This government is afraid of doing the needful! At various events, and even during the Presidential Media Chat, the president and government officials confess to the existence of chronic corruption in the management of fuel subsidies. However, when asked about bringing the culprits to book, the quick (often shaky) response is that “there is no cabal, really, they are just business people”. The president even went as far as comparing fuel marketers to MTN, and that is a new argument that “Team Transformation” is trying out. Mr. President, please don’t compare telecommunications deregulation with the plans in the Oil & Gas sector. And I will explain. At the time when Nigeria moved towards complete deregulation of telecommunications in Nigeria, the situation was so bad that most people didn’t even know the joy of telecommunications. Only 450,000 (way less than 1%) relied on the services, so the 99% only saw benefits after the complete deregulation. That was well-timed and contextual, and it is not the same with a product that determines the cost of livelihood for 99% of the population.

Abuja has also argued that aviation was terrible before deregulation. Again, I ask: what percentage of Nigerians relied on Nigerian Airways for their travel from, say, Lagos to Benin? I’ve also heard the argument that Nigerians accepted the deregulation in the power sector, so they should embrace fuel subsidy removal as part of the deregulation requirements for the Oil & Gas sector. The same telecom/aviation principle applies here: Nigerians knew no power before now, and basically provided their own alternatives, so not many people will protest attempts to reform and make it better. It is not the same for the fuel subsidy debate, so please search your books for another argument. Wise counsel has been given by the likes of EnoughisEnough Nigeria, Prof. Pat Utomi and others: cut the cost of government first, and show Nigerians that you are a responsible government, instead of asking us to sacrifice based on the number of banquets you host to force an idea down our throats.

The sustainability of Nigeria, which the president often speaks of, is NOT even a conversation about fuel subsidy removal; it is a wholesome conversation about the welfare of citizens, cost of government and the quality of governance. At the heart of the ongoing debate is an ongoing show of disrespect for the feedback from citizens. When the president makes statements such as, “there’s no going back on subsidy removal,” what is the point in asking the Coordinating Minister for the Economy to keep saying that the president is still discussing with Nigerians and he will make up his mind based on feedback? Governments should be afraid of their people, but Abuja is not. Many have said that Nigerians deserve the kind of government we get and that we are too resilient to successfully protest anything, but I will advise Abuja not to assume that this is the permanent temperament of the citizenry.

The welfare of citizens is the primary responsibility of government, and this must shine through every policy stance or program of a self-named Transformation Government. In a case where citizen welfare will be threatened, the palace cannot continue in selfish display of waste while the people are asked to cut more pounds of flesh in honour of the existence of the “commonwealth”. The 99% in Nigeria is not responsible for the outrageous expense at which government is run today, so why punish a people by making them suffer for a crime they didn’t commit? Cut the cost of government. Remove that shameful N2.5 million “banquet allowance”, cut Security Vote, reduce the number of ministries (some are close to mirror images of each other, and why do we have Ministers of State?), and ask the other arms of government (hello, legislators) to do the same. When cost is down, improve the quality of governance. After you’ve done that, and you earn the trust of the people, come back to the table for a debate about how fuel subsidy removal can bring about overnight transformation.

December 12, 2011. Lagos, Nigeria – Despite the concerns raised by different groups and individuals, President Jonathan will, tomorrow, present the 2012 Budget to the National Assembly excluding the provision for fuel subsidy.

In her two appearances before the Senate Joint Committees on Appropriation, Finance and Petroleum Resources (Downstream) for the public hearing on “The Operations of the Fuel Subsidy Scheme in Nigeria,” the Minister of Petroleum represented the Federal Government’s position as follows:

The fuel subsidy structure is inefficient, costing us N600bn (~$3.75bn) in 2010 and N1.3 trillion (~$8.125bn) from Jan – October 2011. The Federal Government cannot continue to pay as it’s unsustainable. By removing the subsidy, the savings will be used to provide critical infrastructure and services. Currently, only a small percentage of Nigerians (the marketers, middle & upper-class Nigerians) benefit. When removed, more Nigerians will benefit.

In the words of a Yoruba proverb, the Federal Government has, yet again, left leprosy to treat ringworm. While we understand that the current cost structure is unsustainable, Nigerians can no longer afford to pay for government’s inefficiencies. It’s too expensive (financially; productive man hours and human lives) and it’s also NOT sustainable.

ISSUES TO CONSIDER

1. A lazy, thoughtless approach
The government clearly finds it easier to undertake an unwise blanket removal of subsidy than engage in the discussion of trimming the inefficiencies in fuel subsidy management and in the running cost of government. The language is also deliberately confusing – one minute it’s ‘deregulation’ and the next it’s ‘fuel subsidy removal’.

2. How much subsidy?
The Interim Report on the Process and Forensic Review of NNPC by KPMG states “Based on our analysis, subsidy over-deduction for 2007, 2008 & 2009 was estimated at N2 bn, N10.3 bn and N16.2 bn respectively. A rough estimation of subsidy payment on product losses for the period under review (2007-2009) is estimated at N11.8 billion.” Clearly, the subsidy management regime is fraught with waste, graft and insincerity; evidence that the ‘N1.3 trillion’ does not accurately reflect the amount of petrol imported or consumed by Nigerians.

3. A matter of trust?
To counter the argument that Nigerians do not trust the government to wisely manage the ‘savings’ from the removal of the fuel subsidy, the government is planning a subsidy savings management program. The details were shared by the Vice-President in a meeting with some civil society organisations on Friday, December 9th. Why has this plan not been made public? The questions and concerns that arise are obvious ones:
(a) How does the government plan to calculate ‘fuel subsidy removal savings’?
Will these savings be the theoretical cost of the subsidy – minus cost of corruption – or the current (inflated) figure? Also, how does the government intend to remit same to this proposed quasi-government agency? Will this necessitate the setting up of another special account, in the manner of the Excess Crude Account?
(b) The Obasanjo regime wound down the widely acclaimed PTF because it served as a duplication of the work of the ministries. We agree with this approach.
(c) Setting up a new body means an increase in recurrent expenditure for staffing, salaries, pensions, cars, running costs etc. This is UNACCEPTABLE.

4. No Effect on the Poor
The government’s assertion that the subsidy removal would have little effect on the poor is quite simplistic. The resultant increase in the price of PMS would drastically increase the cost of food, transportation and doing business, shutting down many small enterprises which directly or indirectly depend on the price of petrol remaining low. The middle class is the engine of growth by way of consumption and the SMEs that create jobs. Any strain on them is negative for the economy.

THE WAY FORWARD

The government should take a more measured and sustainable approach that takes into consideration all stakeholders in the Nigerian project. They need to:

1. Reduce Cost of Governance
The government must drastically cut down the cost of maintaining public and civil servants – security votes, multiple advisers, fuel guzzling convoys, excessive foreign travel and estacodes etc. Expenses such as (a) the Vice-President’s residence awarded to Julius Berger at N7 bn ($43.75m) with a request for N9 bn ($56.25m) more; (b) disbursement of N250 billion per year in ‘security votes’ to the President and Governors; and (c) a N1.7 trillion wage bill (2012 Budget) are criminal and unstainable!

2. Reduce Cost of Subsidy
Why does NNPC get 445,000 barrels of crude a day that it can’t refine? In 2006, there were 3 marketers; we now have 77. According to BusinessDay, “the increase has also been linked to this year’s elections and it has been suggested that the subsidy programme became an avenue for patronage extended to those with political connections.” Significant savings can be made on the bandied N1.3 trillion if the government will prune out the “briefcase marketers”, clean up the NNPC/PPPRA to plug waste and leakages, and tackle smuggling.

3. Restore or Sell the Refineries
This is of critical concern and priority. Increasing the capacity of our refineries would reduce the amount of fuel that needs to be imported into the country. How much has been spent on repairing the refineries in the last 12 years?

4. Provide Power
According to a 2009 report by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Agency (NERC), Nigerians spend N797 billion yearly to buy fuel for powering generators. In 2010, President Jonathan said the cost of fuel (to power generators) was $13 billion. NERC’s estimates 32% of generator fuel is PMS. This means Nigerians spend about $4.19 billion or N646 billion on petrol, while the rest goes to diesel. Imagine how much fuel import dependence we can curb if this government fulfills the often-repeated promise of improving power supply in Nigeria!

Why has the government not presented a policy document or engaged openly and directly with Nigerians on this issue? Why the rush to remove the subsidy when other holes have not been plugged?

Enough is Enough Nigeria will continue the conversation by hosting a public Town Hall Meeting within the next 10 days to discuss the issue. In a country that provides no social services and the average citizen provides all basic utilities – water, electricity, and security; the government cannot remove the bread from our mouths while it continues to feed fat on its princely cakes.

We will engage in words and action. Enough is enough!